Evaluation of precipitation thresholds and their correlation with slope instability in León, Guanajuato

Abstract

Rainfall events can trigger mass movements on susceptible slopes. The National Center for Disaster Prevention (CENAPRED) proposed a methodology for calculating return periods and isohyetal maps. For the assessment of rainfall thresholds in the city of León, Guanajuato, official precipitation data were obtained to calculate return periods (ranging from 2 to 100 years), generate isohyetal maps, and spatially correlate susceptible areas with landslide-prone zones. The results indicate that the threshold classified as Very High corresponds to 170.21 mm, the High threshold to 127.65 mm, and the Medium threshold to 85.1 mm. It is considered that return periods between 25 and 100 years correspond to the medium threshold, under which slope instability and mainly mudflows may occur. This information can be used to generate alerts for the population, which will help minimize damage to infrastructure and the population.