Interacciones macroclimáticas en la severidad de la sequía en la región de Lerma-Cutzamala

Abstract

This study analyzes the severity of droughts in the Lerma-Toluca and Cutzamala basins, evaluating their relationship with major climate variability indices (macroclimatic): ONI, PDO, AMO, NAO, QBO, and PNA. Climatological data (1960–2023), the drought indices SPI and SPEI, and correlation analyses with time lags of up to 12 months were used. The drought indices allowed for the identification of prolonged and extreme dry events, while the macroclimatic indices were used to assess their possible modulation by large-scale climate forcings. The results indicate that certain variability patterns significantly influence the occurrence, duration, and magnitude of droughts. This information enhances climate understanding and supports improved water resource management in strategic regions.