Aplicación de VolcFlow para simular Avalanchas de Escombros y CDP en los volcanes Popocatépetl, Volcán de Colima y Ceboruco

Abstract

Volcanic hazard analysis makes it possible to quantify the potential risk from historical events in the social and economic context.  In the geographical context, Mexico has at least 38 volcanic centers, including monogenetic volcanoes and stratovolcanoes, which have presented explosive activity in the last 10 thousand years.  The main relevant are the Popocatépetl volcano, Volcán de Colima and the Ceboruco volcano. They have some similarities between them, such as presenting recent explosive and effusive activity and being located on high population density in its surroundings and therefore, a high degree of vulnerability.  On the one hand, the Ceboruco volcano has presented at least 8 eruptions including the last since 1870. Moreover, Volcán de Colima and the Popocatépetl volcano have been two of the most active volcanoes in Mexico with frequent emplacement and destruction of lava domes in the last 20 years causing preventive evacuation by the corresponding authorities. We used the VolcFlow app written by MATLAB to solve conservation of mass and momentum equations.  Considering the above, this article shows the result of hazard analysis of various events such as lahars, pyroclastic flows, and avalanche debris with a mitigating risk approach from volcanic hazard. The results allow us to make effective modifications in the rheological parameters that are characteristic for each type of event in each volcano considering the characteristics such as the flux density, viscosity, volume of material emitted and Digital Elevation Model.