Climate habitat projections for Michoacan biomes in climate change scenarios

Abstract

The distribution of suitable climate habitat for biomes of the state of Michoacán, Mexico, modeled in a previous work using climatic models "spline" and Random Forests of the R program, under contemporary climate (1961 - 1990) and the decades centered on the years 2030, 2060 and 2090, using six models-climate change scenarios, is analyzed. The results by consensus of six model-scenarios, indicate that by the year 2030, a reduction of the area occupied by the suitable climatic habitat for the coniferous forest (- 71%) and for the oak forest could occur (- 33 %); pine-oak is moderately contracted (- 17%), since it occupies the areas left by the coniferous forest. In contrast, the favorable habitat for warm or semi-arid vegetation types expands: the torn scrub by + 29% and the semi-desert grassland by +53% of the state surface. Other climate habitats suitable to very dry biomass currently absent in Michoacán (inland chaparral, dry deciduous forest of Yucatán and Sinaloa, subdeciduous forest of Yucatan and Tamaulipas), are established and expanded from the year 2030. It also establishes a favorable habitat for non existent biomes in North America in the present (climate without contemporary analogue), until reaching 5% of the state surface in 2090. There was a disparity between the projections of the model-scenarios, which increased substantially by the end of the century, making difficult to make management decisions for scenarios beyond the year 2030